Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe184…bebe other 56 markets active 4h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% −$16
other 15% $0
sports 3% +$38
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.8% +5.7% 20% 20% -2.8%
≤30d 16 +5.2% -4.9% 12% 6% -8.2%
≤90d 44 +10.9% +0.3% 27% 16% -7.7%
all 55 +8.6% -1.8% 25% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 13% -9.2%
10% -11.2% 13% -17.9%
15% -19.7% 13% -25.8%
20% -27.6% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage599d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $6 +$5 +85%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $85 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $86 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $86 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 +$4 +60%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 +$6 +104%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $9 +$9 +108%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 06 $9 +$5 +64%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 02 $36 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 27 $9 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 27 $18 +$1 +4%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Feb 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $12 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $61 4h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 12h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 14h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 4d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 6d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $5 6d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $1 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $19 10d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 10d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $17 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $17 11d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $13 22d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.57 · official $60.57 (match) · 288 history records