Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe184…9661 crypto 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$360 (+9%) realized +$360 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%148W / 96L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$14
14 days−$20
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -5.3% -14.4% 59% 59% -12.3%
≤30d 206 -1.9% -11.2% 58% 53% -17.8%
≤90d 244 +7.1% -3.1% 61% 57% -4.7%
all 244 +7.1% -3.1% 61% 57% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 57% -4.7%
10% -12.4% 53% -13.8%
15% -20.9% 47% -22.1%
20% -28.6% 39% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses148 / 96
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage41d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$5 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$9 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$8 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$7 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 596 history records