Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E1 0xe183…62e6 sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$30,934 (+17%) realized +$34,009 · open −$3,075
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%48W / 54L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,729per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,927
7 days+$22,374
14 days+$22,374
30 days+$22,374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$14,986
sports 37% +$14,064
politics 21% $0
crypto 5% +$1,200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 80% +18.2%
≤30d 10 +34.8% +22.0% 100% 80% +18.2%
≤90d 27 -46.4% -51.5% 37% 30% +8.5%
all 102 +22.1% +10.5% 47% 44% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 44% +8.2%
10% -0.1% 41% -2.1%
15% -9.7% 39% -11.6%
20% -18.6% 36% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$951 vs −$233 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$5,025
Realized+$34,009
Unrealized−$3,075
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses48 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage171d
Avg bet$1,729
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 34¢ $8,100 $5,025 −$3,075 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $14,635 +$2,574 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $9,960 +$2,040 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5,530 +$1,470 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6,357 +$2,643 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8,800 +$1,200 +14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4,635 +$365 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,570 +$430 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,665 +$5,335 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $8,492 +$3,204 +38%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $5,300 +$3,113 +59%
Clippers vs. Wizards Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. 76ers Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Heat vs. Warriors Apr 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Apr 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Apr 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Pistons vs. Pelicans Apr 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Nets vs. Clippers Apr 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Nets vs. Knicks Apr 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Celtics vs. Pistons Apr 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets Apr 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Apr 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Apr 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Apr 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Suns vs. Nets Apr 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $36,533 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Feb 20 $9,600 +$2,400 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Feb 20 $13,164 +$5,588 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Feb 20 $10,496 −$10,496 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $14,819 +$8,526 +58%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Feb 20 $41 +$31 +75%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Feb 20 $9,320 +$4,756 +51%
Hornets vs. Grizzlies Feb 20 $7 +$9 +133%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Feb 20 $24 +$64 +265%
Heat vs. Suns Feb 20 $39 +$61 +156%
76ers vs. Hornets Feb 20 $90 +$110 +122%
Hawks vs. Celtics Feb 20 $64 +$136 +212%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Jan 25 $4 +$7 +178%
Mavericks vs. Knicks Jan 25 $22 +$81 +369%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jan 25 $21 +$105 +510%
Hornets vs. Magic Jan 25 $56 +$144 +257%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings Jan 19 $42 +$58 +136%
Hornets vs. Nuggets Jan 19 $0 +$1 +335%
Magic vs. Grizzlies Jan 19 $40 +$60 +150%
Wizards vs. Nuggets Jan 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jan 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jan 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Jan 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Pacers vs. Pistons Jan 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $8,212 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,600 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $3,648 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,154 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $32 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $21 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $151 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $139 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $3,310 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $113 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $13 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $43 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $59 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $908 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $74 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,536 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $11 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $197 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,025.00 · official $5,175.00 · 763 history records