Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E1 0xe181…9135 politics 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 124L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$21
politics 33% −$15
sports 13% +$20
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage130d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $253 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $233 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $231 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $442 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $291 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $294 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $282 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $233 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,269 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 06 $204 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $210 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $258 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $292 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $281 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $266 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $222 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $235 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $305 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 30 $276 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $48 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $48 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 12d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 21d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 21d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 22d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $205 22d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $205 26d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 26d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $204 26d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $233 28d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $233 29d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $202 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 421 history records