Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe180…d7c2 crypto 587 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-4%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%207W / 380L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$31
14 days−$73
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$85
sports 1% −$13
world 1% −$5
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +72.1% +55.7% 22% 22% -49.6%
≤30d 555 -8.7% -17.4% 32% 27% -26.5%
≤90d 586 -5.2% -14.2% 35% 31% -23.4%
all 587 -5.3% -14.4% 35% 31% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 31% -24.3%
10% -22.6% 23% -31.6%
15% -30.0% 17% -38.2%
20% -36.9% 12% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses207 / 380
Open positions0
Markets (closed)587 / 587
History coverage144d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 587 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1808 history records