Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe17f…baa2 sports 36 markets active 4h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$170 (-3%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 94% −$5
sports 5% −$166
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.6% -35.4% 29% 29% -38.6%
≤30d 31 +13.0% +2.2% 55% 52% +6.0%
≤90d 32 +9.5% -0.9% 53% 50% +2.8%
all 34 +6.0% -4.1% 50% 47% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 47% -12.3%
10% -13.3% 47% -20.6%
15% -21.7% 47% -28.3%
20% -29.3% 47% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage242d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +108%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $3 +$3 +100%
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 05 $3 +$3 +104%
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $6 +$7 +109%
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $3 +$3 +92%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) May 30 $3 +$4 +108%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $7 +$6 +88%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $3 −$3 -98%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De May 27 $3 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 May 27 $4 +$4 +101%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tam May 27 $4 +$4 +97%
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 May 27 $5 +$5 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 May 27 $5 +$5 +92%
Piros vs. Forejtek: Match O/U 21.5 May 27 $5 +$5 +100%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi May 26 $3 +$4 +113%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $3 +$3 +101%
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis May 21 $3 +$3 +100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Rockets vs. Magic: O/U 216.5 Feb 26 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? Oct 18 $5,389 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 3h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 27h
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 48¢ $0 2d
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $3 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $3 4d
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 5d
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 6d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Simundza 50¢ $3 6d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 8d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $0 8d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 52¢ $0 8d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 8d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $0 11d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $2 11d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY Yes 49¢ $3 11d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 12d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Granollers/Zeballos 50¢ $3 13d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $6 14d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 16d
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 17d
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Cobolli 48¢ $2 17d
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) BUY Cobolli 48¢ $1 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $3 19d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Diego Padres 53¢ $3 20d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Diego Padres 53¢ $3 20d
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De BUY Luisina Giovannini 49¢ $3 21d
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi BUY Griekspoor 47¢ $3 21d
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi BUY Griekspoor 47¢ $0 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.04 · official $54.04 (match) · 104 history records