Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe17f…fd85 sports 195 markets active 12d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%96W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$17
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1
crypto 22% +$1
other 12% +$3
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 138 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 31% -11.1%
≤90d 195 -2.5% -11.8% 49% 36% -10.2%
all 195 -2.5% -11.8% 49% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 36% -10.2%
10% -20.2% 24% -18.8%
15% -27.9% 18% -26.6%
20% -35.0% 12% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses96 / 99
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)195 / 195
History coverage28d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 195 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$10 -84%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 +$7 +184%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 -11%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $7 $0 -7%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $3 −$1 -16%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +17%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$1 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $4 +$3 +70%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 −$1 -23%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -19%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $4 $0 +8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 −$5 -24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $17 +$2 +13%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $3 −$1 -16%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 −$1 -19%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $42 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 41¢ $1 11d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $0 11d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 51¢ $1 11d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 11d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 32¢ $4 12d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $2 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 40¢ $2 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 41¢ $3 12d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 82¢ $1 12d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 12d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 12d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 12d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 12d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) BUY Miami Marlins 34¢ $1 12d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 13d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 36¢ $2 13d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 32¢ $1 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 46¢ $0 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $0 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $0 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 82¢ $2 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $2 13d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 46¢ $2 13d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 47¢ $1 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 33¢ $2 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 37¢ $3 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 87¢ $6 13d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 550 history records