Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E1 0xe17d…7c1a crypto 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,203 (+7%) realized +$498 · open +$1,705
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate77%191W / 56L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$22,213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$666
30 days+$666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1,227
politics 30% +$505
other 20% +$648
crypto 1% +$12
weather 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 +2.6% -7.2% 69% 12% -2.0%
≤90d 16 +2.6% -7.2% 69% 12% -2.0%
all 247 -10.1% -18.6% 77% 4% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 4% -2.9%
10% -26.4% 2% -12.2%
15% -33.5% 0% -20.7%
20% -40.0% 0% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.68 per $1 lost it wins $14.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$22,213
Realized+$498
Unrealized+$1,705
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses191 / 56
Open positions8
Markets (closed)247 / 255
History coverage137d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $9,159 $9,951 +$791 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 82¢ $3,824 $4,100 +$276 (+7%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 99¢ $2,550 $2,984 +$433 (+17%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,613 $1,661 +$48 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,409 $1,496 +$87 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $963 $1,006 +$43 (+4%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $951 $974 +$23 (+2%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 37¢ 41¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 21 $949 +$51 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,570 −$1 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $4,394 +$616 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 16 Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 16? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 16? Jun 08 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 16? Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 16? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16? Jun 08 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 16? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 16 Jun 08 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 16 Jun 08 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C or below on March Jun 08 $4 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 20? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on March 20 Mar 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on March 20? Mar 16 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 17? Mar 16 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 16? Mar 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 3°C or below on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 2 Mar 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 20? Mar 16 $1 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 $0 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March Mar 16 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 19? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 20? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19? Mar 16 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 19 Mar 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on March 17 Mar 16 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 16? Mar 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 16? Mar 16 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on Marc Mar 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on March 16? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $37 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $820 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $260 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $344 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $83 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $143 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $724 22h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $4 40h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $742 44h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $728 46h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $960 4d
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $953 6d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $461 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026 BUY No 95¢ $797 9d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $557 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $94 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $499 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $0 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $261 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026 BUY No 95¢ $154 11d
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 95¢ $949 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2,550 11d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,058 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $501 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,212.85 · official $22,187.85 (match) · 617 history records