Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe178…0c26 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$221 (-13%) realized −$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$230
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$290
politics 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -8.3% -17.1% 0% 0% -17.1%
≤30d 14 -11.6% -20.0% 36% 14% -22.7%
≤90d 29 -27.8% -34.7% 31% 17% -26.5%
all 29 -27.8% -34.7% 31% 17% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 17% -26.5%
10% -41.0% 17% -33.5%
15% -46.7% 14% -39.9%
20% -51.9% 14% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage62d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $186 −$16 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $37 −$35 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $217 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $67 −$5 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $59 −$31 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $117 +$7 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $263 −$44 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $14 −$8 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $34 +$85 +251%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $18 +$13 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $33 +$19 +59%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $45 −$22 -49%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $16 −$16 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $47 −$11 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to Apr Apr 28 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $39 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $16 −$16 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April Apr 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $8 −$6 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $62 −$18 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $49 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $31 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $39 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $41 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $98 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $82 11d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $56 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $55 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $62 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $67 13d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $42 14d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records