Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:06:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

E1 0xe177…a7cc crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$122 (-18%) realized −$141 · open +$19

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR46%break-even

Win rate46%6W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$49per market

Trades / day135.0pace

Kalshi-fit93%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +46%

net ROI/market (all)-25.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-17.8%	-25.7%	46%	46%	-30.0%
≤30d	13	-17.8%	-25.7%	46%	46%	-30.0%
≤90d	13	-17.8%	-25.7%	46%	46%	-30.0%
all	13	-17.8%	-25.7%	46%	46%	-30.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover135.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.7%	46%	-30.0%
10% ← realistic here	-32.8%	31%	-36.7%
15%	-39.3%	15%	-42.8%
20%	-45.2%	15%	-48.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -19% → late -17% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$28 vs −$44 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized−$141

Unrealized+$19

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses6 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)13 / 14

History coverage1d

Avg bet$49

Trades / day135.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	53¢	100¢	$21	$40	+$19 (+89%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 16	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 16	$64	−$10	-15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 16	$51	+$8	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 16	$74	−$71	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 16	$60	−$60	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 16	$42	+$69	+166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 16	$52	+$7	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 16	$52	+$66	+126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 16	$41	−$5	-12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 16	$35	+$11	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$6	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Jun 16	$78	−$78	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 16	$31	−$31	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$5	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$5	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$5	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$5	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$5	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	SELL Down	92¢	$34	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	SELL Down	60¢	$1	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	SELL Down	62¢	$9	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	SELL Down	64¢	$10	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$5	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$2	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	SELL Down	33¢	$3	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$5	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	SELL Down	15¢	$27	42m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.75 · official $39.75 (match) · 149 history records