Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe177…2440 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate58%32W / 23L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$9
other 28% +$12
sports 13% +$6
politics 6% +$1
crypto 4% +$1
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 36% 9% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +1.3% -8.3% 35% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 22 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 9% -8.4%
all 55 +8.7% -1.7% 58% 9% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 9% -7.6%
10% -11.1% 5% -16.4%
15% -19.7% 4% -24.5%
20% -27.5% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.56 per $1 lost it wins $4.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses32 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage476d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +10%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $1 $0 +17%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $41 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $42 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $35 +$4 +12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 15 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 05 $7 +$3 +46%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Apr 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 02 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 31 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $1 $0 -14%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 25 $24 +$2 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $2 +$9 +396%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 21? Mar 19 $18 $0 -2%
Will 'Black Bag' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $3 −$1 -42%
Will 'Opus' gross less than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $20 $0 +0%
Epstein files released this week? Mar 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $47 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $47 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $40 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $41 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $3 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $47 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $12 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records