Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E1 0xe176…91a1 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$106 (+42%) realized +$66 · open +$40

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+50.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+66.2%	+50.4%	67%	67%	+50.4%
≤30d	3	+66.2%	+50.4%	67%	67%	+50.4%
≤90d	3	+66.2%	+50.4%	67%	67%	+50.4%
all	3	+66.2%	+50.4%	67%	67%	+50.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+50.4%	67%	+50.4%
10%	+36.0%	67%	+36.0%
15%	+22.9%	67%	+22.8%
20%	+10.8%	67%	+10.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +66% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +66% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$58 vs −$16 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.42 per $1 lost it wins $7.42

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$140

Realized+$66

Unrealized+$40

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Haiti	43¢	81¢	$50	$95	+$45 (+90%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	Under	47¢	42¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$51	+$77	+152%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$51	+$40	+78%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 24	$51	−$16	-31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Haiti	43¢	$51	1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	47¢	$51	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$128	1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	66¢	$91	2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	SELL Yes	25¢	$35	2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$51	3h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	36¢	$51	3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$51	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.97 · official $139.98 (match) · 8 history records