Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E1 0xe172…e8e0 politics 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,112 (+1%) realized −$675 · open +$1,787
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,614per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,418
7 days+$2,415
14 days+$2,809
30 days−$1,737
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$2,854
other 41% +$2,039
world 7% +$871
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.7% -1.6% 75% 50% +3.7%
≤30d 14 +20.1% +8.7% 71% 36% -11.7%
≤90d 14 +20.1% +8.7% 71% 36% -11.7%
all 14 +20.1% +8.7% 71% 36% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.7% 36% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -1.7% 14% -20.2%
15% -11.2% 7% -27.9%
20% -19.9% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$376 vs −$1,373 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$37,999
Realized−$675
Unrealized+$1,787
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage32d
Avg bet$5,614
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $18,202 $18,267 +$65 (+0%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $13,432 $14,178 +$746 (+6%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 74¢ 88¢ $3,793 $4,486 +$693 (+18%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 92¢ 92¢ $596 $593 −$3 (-1%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 37¢ 96¢ $182 $468 +$287 (+158%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $6,569 +$1,241 +19%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $7,070 +$1,177 +17%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,389 −$76 -6%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 12 $1,485 +$73 +5%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $207 +$23 +11%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $689 +$14 +2%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $1,220 +$356 +29%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $22,007 −$4,889 -22%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 04 $4,112 −$523 -13%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $17,957 +$661 +4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $7,041 +$202 +3%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 23 $844 +$5 +1%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 22 $2 +$4 +233%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? May 21 $309 −$5 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $598 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 92¢ $15,458 1h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 86¢ $4,405 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,576 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 84¢ $4,599 2d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 84¢ $2,665 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7,712 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $322 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2,582 2d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 40¢ $4 4d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 46¢ $106 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $111 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 90¢ $1,604 4d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $1,256 5d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 31¢ $24 5d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 28¢ $36 5d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 31¢ $9 6d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J BUY Yes 31¢ $2 6d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $471 6d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $169 6d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $142 6d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $125 6d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $424 6d
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar SELL No 100¢ $1,558 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 78¢ $128 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $321 6d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 74¢ $1,322 7d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $1,025 7d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 73¢ $294 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,998.76 · official $37,998.76 (match) · 131 history records