Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe170…ea27 crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$719 (+10%) realized +$53 · open +$666
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%35W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$6,336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$715
tech 1% $0
politics 1% +$3
other 1% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 94% 0% -9.3%
all 36 +1.1% -8.5% 97% 3% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -6.1%
10% -17.3% 0% -15.1%
15% -25.3% 0% -23.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×41.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1460.4 per $1 lost it wins $1460.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$6,336
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$666
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses35 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage430d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 89¢ 100¢ $5,518 $6,184 +$666 (+12%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 25? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 21 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? Jun 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 7? Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $245? Jun 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Apr 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? Mar 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 5 Mar 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 5? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on February 5? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 4? Feb 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on January 4? Feb 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 4? Feb 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 4? Feb 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on December 1 Jan 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on December 18 Jan 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on December 18? Jan 04 $21 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 18 $41 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Nov 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Nov 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 25 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Jul 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in July? Jul 26 $743 +$45 +6%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 20 $24 +$3 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? May 15 $22 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Solana dip to $60 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $22 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 1-7? BUY No 99¢ $11 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $3,712 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $8 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $1,523 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 89¢ $276 21d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $245? BUY No 99¢ $14 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $22 26d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 62d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $10 62d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $10 62d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 62d
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 94d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 94d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 94d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 94d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $11 140d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $11 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 5 BUY No 100¢ $10 140d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $10 140d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 172d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,335.96 · official $6,335.96 (match) · 82 history records