trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.6% | -8.0% | 50% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 36% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 36% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 28 | +10.1% | -0.4% | 54% | 4% | -7.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -0.4% | 4% | -7.6% |
| 10% | -9.9% | 4% | -16.5% |
| 15% | -18.6% | 4% | -24.5% |
| 20% | -26.6% | 4% | -31.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $34 | $34 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 19 | $97 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 19 | $3 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 08 | $32 | +$1 | +3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 06 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 05 | $32 | −$1 | -2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 04 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 03 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jun 10 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? | Jun 06 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Jun 01 | $28 | −$4 | -15% |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 30 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? | Apr 30 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 29 | $18 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on March 31? | Mar 30 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? | Mar 29 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 26 | $5 | +$15 | +300% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Mar 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Mar 16 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? | Mar 13 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on March 8? | Mar 11 | $13 | $0 | +1% |