Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe16f…6c9e crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 42L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$369
7 days+$356
14 days+$350
30 days+$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +30.6% +18.2% 25% 25% +34.2%
≤30d 55 +23.5% +11.7% 24% 24% +33.1%
≤90d 55 +23.5% +11.7% 24% 24% +33.1%
all 55 +23.5% +11.7% 24% 24% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.7% 24% +33.1%
10% ← realistic here +1.0% 24% +20.4%
15% -8.7% 24% +8.7%
20% -17.7% 24% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$10 · ×5.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$457 +914%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$22 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$26 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$37 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$9 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$33 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$21 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$19 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $36 +$37 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$17 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$12 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$20 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$37 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$7 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$48 +768%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $507 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 13¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records