Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E1
0xe16b…3101
crypto · 972 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$116 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$105 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses603 / 360
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)963 / 972
History coverage89d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 9 History 963 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$22
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 23¢ 17¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-27%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 39¢ 44¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 74¢ 61¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 43¢ 20¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 52¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 42¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 +$4 +188%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadi Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +23%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -73%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $3 +$4 +140%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +13%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $23 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +119%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +24%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Russia enter Stinky by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 31 $4 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 28 $3 −$2 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +18%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 27 $1 $0 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$90
other 4% −$28
world 3% −$7
sports 2% +$25
weather 1% −$21
finance 1% −$10
tech 1% $0
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $1 1h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $2 32h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $1 39h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $5 5d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $1 7d
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 7d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $2 7d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 46¢ $1 8d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 8d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 8d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $3 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $2 8d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented BUY Yes 24¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 38% -20.9%
≤30d 70 -18.4% -26.1% 41% 33% -8.8%
≤90d 963 -5.7% -14.7% 63% 40% -11.7%
all 963 -5.7% -14.7% 63% 40% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 40% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 26% -20.1%
15% -30.3% 16% -27.8%
20% -37.2% 11% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.15 · official $53.16 (match) · 3500 history records