Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe167…28ec other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$355 (-39%) realized −$355 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$39
14 days−$135
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$177
politics 11% −$99
other 8% −$29
crypto 6% −$39
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -25.1% -32.3% 29% 29% -55.1%
≤30d 11 -24.9% -32.0% 27% 27% -40.0%
≤90d 13 -34.7% -40.9% 23% 23% -50.0%
all 13 -34.7% -40.9% 23% 23% -50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 23% -50.0%
10% -46.6% 23% -54.8%
15% -51.7% 23% -59.1%
20% -56.5% 23% -63.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$43 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$355
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage70d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$14 +94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +230%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $264 −$146 -55%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $99 +$50 +51%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $135 −$36 -27%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $180 −$46 -25%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 28 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 28 $50 −$39 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $9 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No $4 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No $64 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 26¢ $100 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 43¢ $114 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 38¢ $100 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 46¢ $149 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 31¢ $99 13d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $99 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $135 27d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $134 27d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 47¢ $80 47d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes $1 53d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes $11 53d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 42¢ $100 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records