Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:26:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe15f…53c7 crypto 393 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (198 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$158 (-2%) realized −$151 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate21%168W / 628L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day197.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,119
7 days−$1,218
14 days−$1,323
30 days−$1,341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (198 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-57.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 667 -61.8% -65.5% 16% 4% -26.5%
≤30d 796 -53.1% -57.6% 21% 5% -23.4%
≤90d 796 -53.1% -57.6% 21% 5% -23.4%
all 796 -53.1% -57.6% 21% 5% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover197.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.6% 5% -23.4%
10% ← realistic here -61.6% 2% -30.7%
15% -65.3% 1% -37.4%
20% -68.7% 1% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses168 / 628
Open positions1
Markets (closed)796 / 393
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day197.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Down 60¢ 96¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 33¢ 4¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 424 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.17 · official $20.58 (match) · 3500 history records