Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe158…509f other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-0%) realized −$105 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate80%101W / 26L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$383per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$478
14 days−$478
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$505
crypto 21% +$155
weather 13% −$215
economics 11% −$703
sports 6% −$368
politics 5% +$424
finance 3% +$24
world 3% +$99
tech 1% −$34
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -23.3% -30.6% 57% 14% -28.9%
≤30d 15 -21.7% -29.1% 60% 13% -28.5%
≤90d 35 -12.4% -20.7% 69% 9% -16.9%
all 127 +2.0% -7.7% 80% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 15% -9.7%
10% -16.5% 8% -18.4%
15% -24.6% 4% -26.3%
20% -32.0% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$536) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$85 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses101 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 130
History coverage320d
Avg bet$383
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $305 $311 +$5 (+2%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $55 −$52 -93%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$24 +52%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $63 −$1 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $462 −$460 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $388 +$12 +3%
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $161 −$18 -11%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $342 +$43 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $325 +$3 +1%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $169 +$10 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $39 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $307 +$29 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 06 $95 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 4? May 04 $18 −$1 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 01 $825 +$25 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $238 −$12 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 29 $89 +$4 +5%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $771 +$69 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 31 $201 +$2 +1%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 31 $9 +$1 +11%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 31 $126 −$46 -36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $176 +$5 +3%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? Mar 25 $406 −$87 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 24? Mar 25 $375 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? Mar 24 $253 −$253 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 24 $982 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 23? Mar 23 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 23? Mar 23 $219 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23? Mar 23 $732 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 22? Mar 22 $314 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 21? Mar 22 $255 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 20? Mar 20 $663 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19? Mar 19 $905 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 1 Mar 18 $90 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 21? Mar 18 $0 $0 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18? Mar 18 $404 +$17 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17? Mar 18 $0 +$1 +285%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 18? Mar 17 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 17? Mar 17 $335 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 18? Mar 17 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 17? Mar 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 18? Mar 17 $94 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16? Mar 16 $450 +$16 +4%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $95 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 39¢ $6 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $21 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 1¢ $4 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $29 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $27 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $46 3d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $29 3d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $40 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $46 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $77 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $15 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $52 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $76 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $157 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 4d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $9 4d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $95 4d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $91 4d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $0 4d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $0 4d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1 4d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.44 · official $408.39 (match) · 778 history records