Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe157…ef67 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate89%31W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% $0
politics 34% −$1
economics 16% −$1
crypto 7% +$1
world 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 35 +4.3% -5.7% 89% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 9% -9.5%
10% -14.7% 9% -18.2%
15% -22.9% 9% -26.1%
20% -30.5% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses31 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage616d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $112 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Apr 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Feb 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Feb 14 $23 $0 +0%
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Jan 30 $1 +$1 +56%
49ers vs. Browns Jan 30 $2 +$1 +43%
Saints vs. Dolphins Jan 30 $2 +$1 +43%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 30 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Jan 30 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Nov 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Nov 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 21 $416 $0 +0%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 18 $747 −$1 -0%
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? Oct 18 $1,131 −$1 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: Other Oct 18 $749 −$1 -0%
Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting? Oct 18 $749 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 39d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 39d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $94 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $21 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 100d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 100d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 100d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $18 131d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $40 131d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $13 131d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 131d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 131d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $21 147d
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $10 147d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $10 147d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 147d
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $10 147d
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 147d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 147d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $56 207d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $50 207d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 207d
Saints vs. Dolphins BUY Dolphins 70¢ $2 207d
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers BUY Buccaneers 64¢ $1 207d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.88 · official $128.88 (match) · 275 history records