Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E1 0xe154…14e8 world 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$870 (+15%) realized +$631 · open +$239
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%40W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$323
7 days+$323
14 days+$862
30 days+$862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$259
other 31% +$568
sports 11% +$713
crypto 10% −$135
economics 0% −$5
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +873.7% +781.0% 100% 100% +781.0%
≤30d 10 +86.6% +68.8% 30% 30% +177.5%
≤90d 27 +3.6% -6.3% 26% 26% +23.2%
all 146 -1.9% -11.3% 27% 26% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 26% +1.9%
10% -19.8% 25% -7.8%
15% -27.5% 24% -16.7%
20% -34.6% 23% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$28 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$823
Realized+$631
Unrealized+$239
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses40 / 106
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)146 / 154
History coverage169d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 36¢ $138 $370 +$232 (+168%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $72 $116 +$44 (+61%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $58 $92 +$33 (+57%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $71 $65 −$6 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $78 $54 −$24 (-31%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $71 $42 −$29 (-41%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Under 5¢ 4¢ $45 $40 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $37 +$323 +874%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $88 +$219 +250%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 477 Million subscribers by March 31? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals Jun 16 $22 −$21 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $113 +$499 +442%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? Apr 07 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026? Apr 04 $263 −$257 -98%
Will MrBeast hit 475 Million subscribers by March 31? Apr 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? Apr 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? Apr 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, Apr 01 $45 −$42 -92%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 01 $54 −$15 -28%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Jean Silva fight Alexander Volkanovski next? Apr 01 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $15 −$6 -37%
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 202 Mar 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026? Mar 31 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 202 Mar 30 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $55 +$56 +101%
Will Joe Pyfer win by KO or TKO? Mar 29 $51 +$99 +194%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 28 $75 −$65 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8AM ET Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11AM ET Mar 26 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $71 +$70 +98%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $50 −$41 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4AM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 24 $74 −$58 -78%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Mar 24 $160 −$134 -84%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $16 −$14 -85%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 24 $50 −$42 -84%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 24 $60 −$50 -83%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 24 $66 −$1 -1%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 24 $68 −$60 -89%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $18 −$16 -87%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? Mar 20 $48 −$27 -55%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 15 $20 −$19 -93%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 15 $50 −$49 -98%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14? Mar 15 $44 −$44 -99%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 5¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 8d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 8d
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $31 9d
Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $22 9d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $88 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $80 9d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $60 17d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $142 21d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 18¢ $113 21d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 35d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $74 42d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $73 42d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $73 42d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 78d
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $8 78d
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 80d
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 81d
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 84d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $71 84d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $64 84d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $68 84d
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $60 84d
Will Charles Oliveira be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes 2¢ $4 84d
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $39 84d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $822.86 · official $822.86 (match) · 454 history records