Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe153…ba59 crypto 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,273 (-4%) realized −$7,273 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%60W / 86L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,260per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$838est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$515
7 days+$515
14 days+$515
30 days−$741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$2,073
other 35% +$8,357
world 14% −$13,691
crypto 6% −$3,348
tech 4% +$2,326
finance 3% −$4,269
economics 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +31.9% +19.3% 69% 69% +24.7%
≤30d 21 +9.8% -0.7% 62% 62% -15.2%
≤90d 126 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 37% -3.7%
all 146 +2.1% -7.6% 41% 37% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 37% -13.8%
10% -16.5% 32% -22.1%
15% -24.5% 26% -29.6%
20% -31.9% 23% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,077) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$628 vs −$538 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses60 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$838
Open positions0
Markets (closed)146 / 146
History coverage145d
Avg bet$1,260
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 146 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Jun 24 $42 +$22 +52%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $90 +$95 +105%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $65 +$129 +198%
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Jun 24 $99 +$76 +77%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $115 +$149 +129%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $180 +$36 +20%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $125 +$95 +76%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $198 +$125 +63%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $128 −$126 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $109 +$20 +18%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $144 −$35 -25%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $1,442 −$1,383 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $1,099 +$354 +32%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,389 +$1,193 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $1,094 −$1,075 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Hayato Matsuoka May 26 $1,503 −$1,462 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $949 +$391 +41%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $3,018 +$751 +25%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 24 $817 −$800 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert May 24 $7,101 +$1,786 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Dellien vs Valentin Royer May 24 $6,255 +$846 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $3,827 +$2,427 +63%
Valorant: University War vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner May 19 $289 +$236 +82%
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? May 18 $678 −$334 -49%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $559 −$557 -100%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 10 $186 −$183 -98%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $255 −$33 -13%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Noemi Basiletti vs Ajla Tomljanovic May 08 $578 −$69 -12%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert May 07 $198 −$192 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $507 −$496 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 06 $32 −$30 -94%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,890 −$1,175 -62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 04 $318 −$160 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 04 $301 −$117 -39%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North Amer May 04 $2,698 −$2,657 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,160 −$1,147 -99%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 04 $1,924 +$1,315 +68%
Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5) May 04 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 04 $102 −$27 -26%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $1,266 +$959 +76%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Taylor Townsend vs Rebecca May 04 $2,901 −$2,648 -91%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Pierluig May 04 $2,570 +$129 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Federica May 04 $3,899 +$1,024 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 04 $410 +$181 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner SELL Colombia 100¢ $41 14m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner SELL Colombia 100¢ $23 14m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY Colombia 65¢ $5 31m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY Colombia 65¢ $37 31m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $184 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $90 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 25¢ $10 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 25¢ $41 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $195 1h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $175 1h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 56¢ $99 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $65 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Houston Astros 99¢ $264 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $100 3h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 39¢ $15 3h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 69¢ $80 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 12¢ $10 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 12¢ $10 4h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 35¢ $4 4h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 38¢ $97 4h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 37¢ $100 5h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $219 5h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $125 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 99¢ $323 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 60¢ $17 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 60¢ $181 8h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina - Map 2 Winner BUY Pixel Lumina 34¢ $128 32h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $128 32h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $109 32h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $108 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 808 history records