Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe153…2310 world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$10
politics 16% +$2
other 11% +$11
sports 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 25% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 32 -0.0% -9.6% 34% 6% -9.5%
all 39 -6.0% -15.0% 36% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 10% -10.2%
10% -23.1% 8% -18.8%
15% -30.5% 3% -26.6%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage522d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $28 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $69 −$4 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 −$2 -14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $125 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $49 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $38 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 −$5 -10%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $9 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $39 +$3 +8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $32 +$3 +11%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $39 +$11 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $27 −$7 -27%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Mar 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $9 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Columbia vs. Dartmouth Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Bulls Feb 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be 400-500k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Feb 03 $7 $0 +3%
Will 29-32 people watch Trump inauguration? Feb 03 $6 +$2 +27%
Will 26-29m people watch Trump inauguration? Jan 21 $7 $0 -2%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will West Ham vs. Fulham end in a draw? Jan 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $29 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $9 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $8 16h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $11 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $20 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 39h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.72 · official $28.43 (match) · 160 history records