Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E1 0xe153…a036 sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%43W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$190
other 43% −$117
crypto 8% −$45
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.2% -7.6% 33% 33% -13.2%
≤30d 4 +19.1% +7.8% 50% 50% +0.4%
≤90d 84 +6.5% -3.6% 37% 36% -7.5%
all 117 +6.0% -4.1% 37% 36% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 36% -7.7%
10% -13.2% 32% -16.6%
15% -21.6% 28% -24.6%
20% -29.3% 25% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses43 / 74
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 119
History coverage93d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $117 +$68 +58%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 Jun 18 $0 $0 -35%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $584 −$96 -16%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $179 +$125 +70%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 30 $150 −$27 -18%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $11 −$11 -98%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Apr 04 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $5 −$4 -69%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Apr 04 $3 +$2 +73%
Real Betis Balompié vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 9.5 Total Corne Apr 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Hungary vs. Greece: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
San Marino vs. Andorra: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Hungary vs. Slovenia: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $3 −$2 -57%
Colombia vs. France: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Haiti vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $5 −$3 -58%
Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $2 +$8 +439%
Burkina Faso vs. Guinea-Bissau: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $1 +$9 +614%
Canada vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $2 $0 -17%
Senegal vs. Peru: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $2 −$1 -50%
San Marino vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $2 −$1 -83%
Greece vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Morocco vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Montenegro vs. Andorra: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Mauritania: O/U 4.5 Mar 28 $11 −$11 -98%
South Africa vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Mar 27 $1 +$5 +567%
Algeria vs. Guatemala: O/U 4.5 Mar 27 $1 +$9 +614%
Switzerland vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Mar 27 $2 +$8 +455%
Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Türkiye vs. Romania: O/U 4.5 Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Colombia vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Mar 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Italy vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. France: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $2 −$1 -65%
Ukraine vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $1 −$1 -58%
Poland vs. Albania: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $2 $0 +12%
Denmark vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $2 +$1 +70%
Slovakia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $2 +$2 +115%
Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 4.5 Mar 26 $1 +$4 +325%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 4.5 Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Manchester United WFC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Mar 25 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Jaguares de Córdoba FC vs. Águilas Doradas Rionegro: O/U 4.5 Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 90¢ $185 41m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $117 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 SELL 2¢ $0 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 BUY 2¢ $0 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $199 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY 62¢ $10 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) AND Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY 61¢ $46 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $66 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 BUY 1¢ $1 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $348 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $304 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $179 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $60 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $49 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $40 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $234 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records