Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe152…401b crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%51W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$11
politics 20% +$4
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.2%
≤30d 53 -1.0% -10.4% 96% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 53 -1.0% -10.4% 96% 0% -10.7%
all 53 -1.0% -10.4% 96% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses51 / 2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 96¢ 96¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $19 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $15 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 12h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $20 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 28h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $15 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 92¢ $15 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 35h
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY No 98¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.87 · official $154.87 (match) · 113 history records