Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe14f…7e01 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$27
world 37% −$4
politics 12% −$5
sports 9% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.4% -16.2% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 27% 9% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 27% 9% -10.3%
all 30 +0.9% -8.7% 30% 7% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -8.2%
10% -17.4% 7% -17.0%
15% -25.4% 3% -25.0%
20% -32.7% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage300d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $99 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $66 −$12 -18%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $68 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $47 +$12 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $61 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $37 +$26 +72%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $72 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $37 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 19 $17 −$5 -28%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $4 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 25 $37 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Sep 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 24 $41 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 22 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $62 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 10h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $15 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $38 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $26 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.03 · official $62.03 (match) · 187 history records