Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe14e…a878 world 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$10
other 14% +$2
sports 9% −$10
finance 4% +$1
politics 4% +$2
tech 2% +$2
weather 1% +$8
crypto 1% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 25 -0.6% -10.1% 36% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 62 +4.1% -5.8% 48% 13% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 13% -9.8%
10% -14.8% 11% -18.5%
15% -23.1% 5% -26.3%
20% -30.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage546d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 50¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $42 +$1 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $37 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $22 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $53 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $50 −$9 -18%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $144 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $118 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $7 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $21 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $57 +$2 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $50 −$3 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $42 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $22 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $4 $0 +4%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $48 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $27 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $7 $0 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? May 12 $8 +$1 +13%
Appalachian State vs. Georgia Southern Mar 05 $33 −$33 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Feb 19 $25 $0 +0%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 08 $58 +$2 +3%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.34ºC in January 2025? Feb 07 $26 +$8 +32%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 06 $1 $0 +30%
Will James Uthmeier be appointed as the next Florida senator? Feb 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 02 $9 $0 +2%
Will Jeanette Nunez be appointed as the next Florida senator? Feb 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ICE detain 1000-1099 people on January 30? Feb 02 $54 +$4 +8%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Feb 02 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 21 $28 +$2 +7%
Will Matt Gaetz be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 18 $39 +$11 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $42 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $42 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $38 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $37 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $39 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $39 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $7 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $15 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $39 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $41 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $9 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.34 · official $37.12 (match) · 228 history records