Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E1 0xe14c…85dd crypto 551 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$546 (+3%) realized +$538 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%327W / 223L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$125
14 days+$9
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$286
sports 1% −$100
other 0% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +4.4% -5.6% 62% 62% -1.7%
≤30d 550 +0.2% -9.4% 59% 57% -8.4%
≤90d 550 +0.2% -9.4% 59% 57% -8.4%
all 550 +0.2% -9.4% 59% 57% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 57% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 53% -17.1%
15% -26.0% 46% -25.1%
20% -33.2% 36% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$538
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses327 / 223
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)550 / 551
History coverage30d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 41¢ 54¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $77 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$18 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.62 · official $38.11 · 987 history records