Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E1 0xe148…cc9c crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$44 (+4%) realized +$44 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip

Net edge+12%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate26%5W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$56per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Kalshi-fit68%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)+11.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-46.9%	-51.9%	29%	29%	-50.7%
≤30d	19	+23.5%	+11.7%	26%	21%	-27.7%
≤90d	19	+23.5%	+11.7%	26%	21%	-27.7%
all	19	+23.5%	+11.7%	26%	21%	-27.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.7%	21%	-27.7%
10%	+1.1%	21%	-34.6%
15%	-8.7%	16%	-41.0%
20%	-17.7%	16%	-46.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +24% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +75% → late -22% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$67 vs −$39 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.61 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$44

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses5 / 14

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage14d

Avg bet$56

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 18	$131	−$131	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 18	$148	−$148	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$223	+$58	+26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$84	−$38	-45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 18	$27	−$27	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 18	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$17	+$16	+91%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 05	$41	−$9	-22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 05	$36	+$51	+140%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 05	$10	−$1	-14%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 05	$10	−$1	-8%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	Jun 05	$21	−$8	-36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 05	$46	−$46	-100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 05	$51	−$5	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 05	$39	−$39	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5?	Jun 05	$50	−$43	-85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?	Jun 05	$58	+$4	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 05	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 05	$19	+$205	+1103%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$131	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$148	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL No	47¢	$281	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	36¢	$223	2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	19¢	$33	45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	30¢	$33	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	15¢	$17	3d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	SELL Down	52¢	$32	13d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$41	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$36	13d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	2¢	$9	13d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	3¢	$9	13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	19¢	$46	13d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	SELL No	23¢	$13	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$46	13d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	20¢	$46	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$39	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$0	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$31	13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5?	SELL No	1¢	$7	13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?	SELL Yes	22¢	$62	13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	18¢	$58	13d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY No	33¢	$21	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$21	13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	20¢	$51	13d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	13d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	13d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	SELL Up	78¢	$224	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$19	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records