Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe141…cb7a other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$6
politics 29% −$1
sports 14% +$4
world 13% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 20% 0% -9.5%
all 50 +0.1% -9.4% 26% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage297d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $8 $0 +4%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $13 −$3 -24%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 27 $24 −$3 -14%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $10 +$4 +35%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $3 $0 -9%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Nov 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 23 $16 $0 -2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $3 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $47 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $25 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $23 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $48 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 23d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 23d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 83¢ $21 203d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 204d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $8 205d
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 205d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $10 205d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $10 205d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $10 205d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $13 205d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 90¢ $6 209d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $6 209d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 209d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 81¢ $1 209d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 81¢ $6 209d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 81¢ $6 209d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? SELL No 23¢ $6 209d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 23¢ $6 209d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 52¢ $3 209d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records