Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E1 0xe13e…971e crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$92 (+5%) realized −$626 · open +$718
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.4% +11.7% 71% 71% +24.4%
≤30d 14 +23.4% +11.7% 71% 71% +24.4%
≤90d 14 +23.4% +11.7% 71% 71% +24.4%
all 14 +23.4% +11.7% 71% 71% +24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.7% 71% +24.4%
10% ← realistic here +1.0% 64% +12.5%
15% -8.8% 64% +1.6%
20% -17.7% 43% -8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$50 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,308
Realized−$626
Unrealized+$718
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)14 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 6¢ 50¢ $30 $238 +$208 (+693%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 30¢ 50¢ $100 $171 +$71 (+71%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 37¢ 50¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 20¢ 50¢ $50 $124 +$74 (+148%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 31¢ 50¢ $70 $113 +$43 (+62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 22¢ 50¢ $50 $113 +$63 (+126%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 27¢ 50¢ $60 $110 +$50 (+84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 19¢ 50¢ $40 $106 +$66 (+166%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 24¢ 50¢ $50 $105 +$55 (+110%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 21¢ 50¢ $40 $94 +$54 (+136%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $105 +$41 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $155 +$60 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $115 +$119 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $96 +$61 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $99 +$127 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $63 +$23 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $58 +$54 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $47 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $55 +$29 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$67 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $32 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $185 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $51 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $97 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $63 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $42 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $212 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $79 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $226 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $99 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $145 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $216 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $62 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,308.32 · official $1,308.32 (match) · 68 history records