Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe13e…0c22 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$48 (-5%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -16.2% -24.1% 33% 33% -23.7%
≤30d 17 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 41% -12.3%
≤90d 17 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 41% -12.3%
all 17 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 41% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 41% -12.3%
10% -16.6% 29% -20.7%
15% -24.7% 24% -28.4%
20% -32.1% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage10d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 37¢ 46¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 17¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$31 +152%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $41 −$15 -37%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$9 +433%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $35 +$19 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $162 −$56 -35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $122 +$11 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 −$8 -52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $76 −$15 -20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$21 +21%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $102 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $60 +$22 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $31 23m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 17¢ $7 46m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 13¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 32¢ $19 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 40¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $20 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 22¢ $13 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 39¢ $13 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $41 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $54 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $35 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $2 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $35 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 20¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 47¢ $30 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $90 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $31 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 3¢ $1 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $78 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $21 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.90 · official $36.90 (match) · 52 history records