Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe134…f6da sports 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (661 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$70 (-2%) realized +$18 · open −$88
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate60%26W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day661.0pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (661 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -8.4% -17.1% 60% 37% -7.4%
≤30d 43 -8.4% -17.1% 60% 37% -7.4%
≤90d 43 -8.4% -17.1% 60% 37% -7.4%
all 43 -8.4% -17.1% 60% 37% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover661.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 37% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 16% -16.3%
15% -32.3% 9% -24.4%
20% -38.9% 7% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$839
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses26 / 17
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions9
Markets (closed)43 / 52
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day661.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 38¢ 47¢ $113 $139 +$26 (+23%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 75¢ 53¢ $191 $135 −$56 (-29%)
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Juan Estevez 93¢ 94¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Buvaysar Gadamauri 69¢ 73¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 81¢ 80¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 36¢ 30¢ $111 $90 −$21 (-19%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 62¢ 70¢ $76 $87 +$11 (+15%)
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Damir Dzumhur 36¢ 27¢ $43 $32 −$11 (-26%)
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava Tiphanie Lemaitre 87¢ 98¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+13%)
ITF Tauste: Diana Marcinkevica vs Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez Diana Marcinkevica 97¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 82¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 41¢ 16¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-60%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Lorenzo Giustino 38¢ 16¢ $9 $4 −$6 (-59%)
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava Zoziya Kardava 35¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-94%)
ITF Tauste: Diana Marcinkevica vs Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez 46¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $147 +$68 +46%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $114 +$6 +5%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $196 −$59 -30%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $159 −$27 -17%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $231 −$25 -11%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $257 +$31 +12%
Coleman Wong vs. Billy Harris: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $32 +$2 +5%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $157 +$44 +28%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $68 +$1 +1%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $137 +$72 +52%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $81 −$17 -20%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $137 +$28 +20%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $211 −$33 -16%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $94 +$8 +9%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $130 −$22 -17%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $18 +$3 +19%
Figueira Da Foz: Manon Leonard vs Alina Charaeva Jun 15 $57 +$3 +5%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $30 −$9 -29%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $12 +$18 +158%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $30 +$10 +32%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $55 +$6 +11%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $27 +$5 +18%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $52 +$8 +16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Set 1 Winner: Atmane vs Landaluce Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $35 +$7 +18%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $6 +$8 +134%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 81¢ $6 0m
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 81¢ $6 0m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 82¢ $6 1m
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 77¢ $5 1m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 94¢ $6 2m
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 31¢ $2 3m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 81¢ $6 3m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 81¢ $6 3m
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 76¢ $5 3m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 80¢ $6 4m
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 74¢ $4 4m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 95¢ $6 6m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 82¢ $6 6m
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 81¢ $6 7m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 80¢ $6 7m
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 79¢ $6 7m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 93¢ $6 7m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 94¢ $6 7m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 93¢ $6 8m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 93¢ $6 8m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 94¢ $6 8m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 79¢ $6 9m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 80¢ $6 9m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 79¢ $6 9m
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 78¢ $5 9m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 95¢ $6 10m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 94¢ $6 10m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 93¢ $6 11m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 93¢ $6 11m
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 92¢ $6 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $838.81 · official $838.81 (match) · 695 history records