Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe132…abf3 sports 193 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$693 (-5%) realized −$678 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%72W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$336
7 days−$414
14 days−$446
30 days−$693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$919
crypto 19% −$427
other 2% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -42.4% -47.9% 26% 21% -21.2%
≤30d 154 -18.7% -26.4% 39% 34% -17.0%
≤90d 179 -17.1% -25.0% 39% 35% -15.1%
all 189 -17.6% -25.4% 38% 34% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 34% -18.7%
10% -32.6% 28% -26.5%
15% -39.1% 23% -33.6%
20% -45.1% 18% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$30 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$678
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses72 / 117
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions4
Markets (closed)189 / 193
History coverage102d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 46¢ 44¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Leviatán Esports 48¢ 40¢ $65 $55 −$10 (-16%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Leviatán Esports 51¢ 50¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner EDward Gaming 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$6 -26%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $55 +$3 +6%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $316 +$71 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $72 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $38 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$34 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$5 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$30 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $55 −$24 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $84 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$32 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$14 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $64 −$42 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $136 −$45 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $59 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $120 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $63 −$23 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $136 +$103 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$11 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$6 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 49¢ $17 1m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $9 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $15 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $16 22m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 46¢ $17 23m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 51¢ $66 29m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 48¢ $66 29m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $110 30m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 86¢ $31 47m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $19 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $5 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $8 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $10 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 61¢ $44 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 67¢ $90 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 37¢ $51 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 45¢ $48 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 46¢ $102 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 25¢ $12 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 51¢ $50 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 12¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.89 · official $195.89 (match) · 981 history records