Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe130…4006 other 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (224 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,437 (+51%) realized +$4,334 · open +$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day224.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$2,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$623
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (224 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +18.7% +7.4% 17% 17% -22.0%
≤30d 104 -3.7% -12.9% 14% 14% -5.7%
≤90d 104 -3.7% -12.9% 14% 14% -5.7%
all 104 -3.7% -12.9% 14% 14% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover224.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 14% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 14% -14.7%
15% -28.8% 14% -22.9%
20% -35.8% 13% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
24.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$345 vs −$52 · ×6.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$2,092
Realized+$4,334
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 89
Open positions36
Markets (closed)104 / 139
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day224.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 48¢ $361 $634 +$273 (+75%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 30¢ $237 $395 +$158 (+67%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 47¢ 66¢ $214 $306 +$92 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $278 $227 −$52 (-19%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 40¢ 32¢ $220 $172 −$48 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 19¢ 26¢ $39 $53 +$14 (+36%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $44 $50 +$6 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $46 $50 +$4 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $158 $39 −$118 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $15 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $84 $12 −$72 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-32%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $66 $10 −$56 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $56 $9 −$47 (-84%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $23 $4 −$19 (-82%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+42%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-86%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $154 +$146 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $129 −$128 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $177 +$781 +441%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $91 −$56 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $30 −$12 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $216 −$215 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $11 +$439 +4077%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $99 +$151 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $4 +$51 +1389%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $228 −$227 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $486 −$486 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $399 −$397 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $124 −$122 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $30 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $335 +$744 +222%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $150 +$130 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $15 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 17m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 23m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 25m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 27m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 27m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 29m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 32m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 38m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 41m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 42m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 43m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 49m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 56m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 58m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,092.22 · official $2,092.22 (match) · 3500 history records