Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:35:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E1 0xe12e…56b8 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$116 (+14%) realized +$81 · open +$35

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$86per market

Trades / day11.3pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$635now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+16.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+28.4%	+16.2%	100%	100%	+18.2%
≤30d	4	+28.4%	+16.2%	100%	100%	+18.2%
≤90d	4	+28.4%	+16.2%	100%	100%	+18.2%
all	4	+28.4%	+16.2%	100%	100%	+18.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+16.2%	100%	+18.2%
10%	+5.1%	50%	+6.9%
15%	-5.1%	25%	-3.4%
20%	-14.4%	0%	-12.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +31% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$19 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$635

Realized+$81

Unrealized+$35

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions6

Markets (closed)4 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$86

Trades / day11.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	54¢	64¢	$200	$238	+$38 (+19%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	83¢	83¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	90¢	90¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	51¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$50	+$10	+20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$50	+$16	+32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$49	+$11	+22%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$101	+$40	+40%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$51	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$100	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	83¢	$100	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$60	14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$141	14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	82¢	$49	14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$50	20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$50	20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$203	20h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635.26 · official $635.27 (match) · 14 history records