Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe12d…f9b0 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$27
14 days−$31
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +3.2% -6.7% 67% 22% -11.1%
≤30d 35 +3.5% -6.4% 66% 23% -10.0%
≤90d 35 +3.5% -6.4% 66% 23% -10.0%
all 35 +3.5% -6.4% 66% 23% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 23% -10.0%
10% -15.4% 3% -18.6%
15% -23.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -31.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage27d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $151 −$10 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $101 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $160 −$10 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $152 −$26 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $151 −$12 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $163 −$29 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $152 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $150 −$7 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $201 −$27 -13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $151 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $50 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 25 $20 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $32 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 86¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 72¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 72¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 73¢ $29 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 87¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 86¢ $35 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 74¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 74¢ $29 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 86¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 87¢ $46 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 78¢ $46 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 84¢ $51 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 81¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 81¢ $6 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 86¢ $9 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 80¢ $44 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 89¢ $15 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 89¢ $36 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 80¢ $46 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 86¢ $50 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 90¢ $25 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 90¢ $13 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Up 91¢ $14 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 86¢ $50 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 98¢ $54 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.38 · official $41.43 (match) · 154 history records