Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E1 0xe12a…d428 world 15 markets active 360d ago coverage 269d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$66,906 (+95%) realized +$66,906 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$4,712per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$66,905
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+86.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 15 +105.5% +86.0% 60% 60% +76.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +86.0% 60% +76.1%
10% ← realistic here +68.2% 47% +59.3%
15% +51.9% 40% +43.9%
20% +37.0% 27% +29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +106% · $-wt +95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +98% → late +113% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,117 vs −$1,025 · ×7.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.88 per $1 lost it wins $11.88
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66,906
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage269d
Avg bet$4,712
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $39,260 +$14,649 +37%
US military action against Iran by Saturday? Jun 21 $1,465 +$1,910 +130%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 20 $967 −$967 -100%
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 13 $3,946 +$19,954 +506%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 13 $6,690 +$28,010 +419%
Another Iran strike on Israel in October? Jun 12 $3,433 −$3,433 -100%
Another Houthi strike on Israel in May? Jun 01 $1,836 +$386 +21%
US military action against Iran in April? Apr 06 $1,200 −$150 -12%
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? Dec 05 $1,099 −$979 -89%
Israel military response against Iran today? Oct 30 $243 −$243 -100%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Oct 30 $374 −$374 -100%
Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024? Oct 27 $6,203 +$948 +15%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Oct 27 $710 +$6,328 +891%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Oct 06 $179 +$71 +39%
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? Sep 30 $3,078 +$797 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US military action against Iran before July? SELL Yes 75¢ $53,111 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? SELL Yes 14¢ $3,005 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? SELL Yes 13¢ $370 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $171 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $101 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 360d
US military action against Iran by Saturday? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,054 360d
US military action against Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 5¢ $967 361d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,915 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,772 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 53¢ $583 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 45¢ $4,500 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 52¢ $5,200 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 58¢ $468 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,317 363d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 58¢ $284 363d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records