Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E1 0xe121…84da sports 1213 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$153 (+3%) realized +$150 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%769W / 402L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$289
7 days+$15
14 days+$46
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$209
other 35% −$34
crypto 10% −$23
politics 4% −$1
world 0% +$5
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -2.8% -12.0% 62% 51% -8.8%
≤30d 723 -3.8% -13.0% 61% 51% -7.7%
≤90d 1171 +0.0% -9.5% 66% 52% -6.6%
all 1171 +0.0% -9.5% 66% 52% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 52% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 37% -15.5%
15% -26.1% 25% -23.7%
20% -33.3% 17% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$150
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses769 / 402
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions42
Markets (closed)1171 / 1213
History coverage81d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 1171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 94¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 86¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 95¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 61¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 84¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$1 +17%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $12 −$4 -37%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +20%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +59%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $61 −$49 -80%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon Jun 19 $1 $0 +21%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $1 $0 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $15 $0 -2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Keys Jun 19 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +23%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 $0 +48%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $52 −$24 -47%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 −$92 -91%
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Rybakina Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$86 -84%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 +$45 +74%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $20 −$4 -22%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $1 +$1 +105%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Hanfmann Jun 18 $1 $0 +26%
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Muchova Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $1 $0 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +90%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$154 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$33 +129%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $106 −$104 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Set 1 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Alexandrova Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 85¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 6h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 6h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $30 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 20h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 25h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $12 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 27h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $61 27h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $12 31h
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon BUY Zverev 82¢ $1 33h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 89¢ $1 34h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $10 35h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 61¢ $15 37h
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Keys SELL Pegula $0 37h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 58¢ $5 37h
Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs Keys BUY Pegula 57¢ $1 37h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under $9 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $1 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $26 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $0 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.56 · official $169.59 (match) · 2909 history records