Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe121…9131 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$35 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$439per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$4
politics 1% −$38
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -35.3% -41.4% 43% 43% -55.7%
≤90d 18 -1.6% -11.0% 61% 61% -18.9%
all 22 +0.4% -9.1% 55% 55% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 55% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 45% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 32% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 23% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage141d
Avg bet$439
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 76¢ $74 $112 +$38 (+51%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 24¢ $74 $36 −$38 (-51%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down on May 27? Jun 01 $1 $0 +25%
Magic vs. Pistons May 27 $1 $0 +27%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 27 $1 +$1 +101%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $2 +$1 +44%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down on February 9? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 9? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 1? Apr 10 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 30? Apr 01 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 27? Mar 30 $2 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down on March 26? Mar 27 $2 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down on March 23? Mar 26 $1 +$2 +199%
XRP Up or Down on March 20? Mar 23 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 10? Mar 20 $1 +$2 +119%
Solana Up or Down on February 19? Feb 21 $5,267 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 19 $5,064 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down on February 4? Feb 09 $1 $0 +41%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 26 $15 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $2 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $2 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 15d
XRP Up or Down on May 27? BUY Down 79¢ $1 20d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY Knicks 49¢ $1 39d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 78¢ $1 48d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $2 48d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 79¢ $1 54d
Ethereum Up or Down on April 1? BUY Up 86¢ $1 76d
Ethereum Up or Down on March 30? BUY Up 87¢ $1 77d
Ethereum Up or Down on March 27? BUY Down 65¢ $2 81d
Solana Up or Down on March 26? BUY Down 65¢ $2 82d
Solana Up or Down on March 23? BUY Up 33¢ $1 84d
XRP Up or Down on March 20? BUY Up 81¢ $1 87d
Ethereum Up or Down on March 10? BUY Up 45¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 9? BUY Down 71¢ $2 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $5,064 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5,064 118d
XRP Up or Down on February 9? BUY Down 46¢ $2 127d
Solana Up or Down on February 4? BUY Down 71¢ $1 132d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL Yes $1 141d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $13 141d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY Yes $2 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.08 · official $149.09 (match) · 114 history records