Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe11c…24ef crypto 749 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,431 (+38%) realized +$5,442 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%303W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day85.3pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$1,389
sports 25% +$749
other 2% −$80
weather 2% −$27
world 0% −$16
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +60.8% +45.5% 29% 29% +59.1%
≤30d 407 +0.8% -8.8% 39% 35% +8.7%
≤90d 740 -6.5% -15.4% 41% 38% -14.4%
all 740 -6.5% -15.4% 41% 38% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 38% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 36% -22.6%
15% -30.9% 33% -30.1%
20% -37.7% 28% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$5,442
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses303 / 437
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions9
Markets (closed)740 / 749
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day85.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 740 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$269 +874%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$146 +474%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 +$127 +114%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$70 +344%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$200 +651%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 +$90 +874%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 +$97 +474%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $473 +$653 +138%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $148 +$335 +226%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $114 −$114 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 27 $2 $0 -8%
Spread: Estudiantes de La Plata (-1.5) May 27 $4 −$1 -23%
Dogecoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $6 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $4 −$3 -70%
BNB Up or Down - May 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 26 $17 +$21 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $6 +$6 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on May 26? May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $112 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.19 · official $239.19 (match) · 3500 history records