Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E1 0xe11a…0b0f world 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+3%) realized +$57 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$5
other 24% +$33
crypto 23% −$9
sports 23% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 0% -6.6%
≤90d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 0% -6.6%
all 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 0% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 0% -6.6%
10% -16.4% 0% -15.5%
15% -24.5% 0% -23.7%
20% -31.9% 0% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$5 · ×6.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.53 per $1 lost it wins $6.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $54 $50 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 16 $41 −$1 -3%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $447 +$33 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 10 $451 $0 +0%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $421 +$35 +8%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 09 $431 −$9 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.69 · official $49.69 (match) · 14 history records