Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe110…453c sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$183 (-4%) realized −$167 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%29W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$316
other 43% −$18
world 3% −$101
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +33.2% +20.6% 38% 38% -2.4%
≤30d 45 +33.2% +20.6% 38% 38% -2.4%
≤90d 45 +33.2% +20.6% 38% 38% -2.4%
all 81 +7.7% -2.5% 36% 32% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 32% -14.3%
10% -11.9% 30% -22.5%
15% -20.4% 27% -30.0%
20% -28.2% 21% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$32 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses29 / 52
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage403d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $84 $74 −$10 (-12%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $21 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-2%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $118 −$102 -87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 +$19 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $149 −$123 -82%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$39 +379%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $209 +$98 +47%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $78 −$31 -40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $150 −$101 -67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 +$51 +66%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$12 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $107 −$87 -81%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 +$40 +94%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 +$126 +186%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $276 +$148 +54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $164 −$76 -46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $59 −$22 -37%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $49 +$11 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $86 −$85 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $78 +$68 +87%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$13 -64%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$171 +212%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -77%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$4 -23%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$48 +442%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$4 -25%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $42 −$28 -66%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 +$13 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $63 −$33 -53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $130 −$55 -42%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$43 +1388%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$22 -79%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$50 +106%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 −$11 -70%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $12 +$15 +123%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +106%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 13 $14 −$14 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Jul 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Nationals vs. Angels Jun 29 $146 −$8 -6%
FIFA Club World Cup: Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich (To Advance) Jun 29 $11 +$11 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 57m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 58m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $140 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $120 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $97 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $149 3h
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $50 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 6h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $42 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 16¢ $42 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $209 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $31 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $57 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.03 · official $121.03 (match) · 279 history records