Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe10f…1a87 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,872 (-35%) realized −$2,887 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate14%4W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$469
7 days−$1,290
14 days−$1,385
30 days−$1,385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$2,742
sports 14% −$153
world 4% −$39
crypto 2% −$145
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-55.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -45.6% -50.8% 7% 7% -30.2%
≤30d 17 -42.5% -48.0% 12% 12% -31.3%
≤90d 23 -57.5% -61.6% 9% 9% -46.5%
all 28 -50.4% -55.1% 14% 7% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.1% 7% -45.4%
10% -59.4% 7% -50.6%
15% -63.4% 7% -55.4%
20% -66.9% 7% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$148 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized−$2,887
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses4 / 24
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)28 / 33
History coverage245d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 100¢ $100 $370 +$270 (+270%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? Yes $140 $2 −$138 (-99%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Yes $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Japan? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$453 +442%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $91 −$89 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,202 −$194 -9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $176 −$171 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $595 −$37 -6%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,378 −$155 -11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $264 −$258 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will BNB reach $600 in April? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Will BNB dip to $500 in April? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March? Mar 26 $533 −$533 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? Mar 25 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Mar 25 $447 −$447 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Mar 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 22 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31? Nov 04 $16 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 04 $111 +$1 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 19 $99 −$47 -47%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Oct 19 $100 −$41 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes $103 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes $144 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes $10 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $102 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $102 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $102 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $91 27h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 27h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes $103 27h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $204 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $500 27h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $176 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $559 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $559 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $595 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $523 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $612 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $589 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $616 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $699 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $896 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $788 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $264 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $374.56 · official $374.56 (match) · 84 history records