Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe10f…e8bb sports 571 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$644 (-4%) realized −$646 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%368W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$126
14 days−$241
30 days−$397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$864
other 30% +$61
world 0% +$33
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -13.0% -21.3% 54% 46% -20.8%
≤30d 235 -3.7% -12.9% 61% 54% -16.4%
≤90d 570 -3.4% -12.6% 65% 54% -13.5%
all 570 -3.4% -12.6% 65% 54% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 54% -13.5%
10% -21.0% 33% -21.8%
15% -28.6% 19% -29.3%
20% -35.6% 9% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$646
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses368 / 202
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions1
Markets (closed)570 / 571
History coverage66d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 86¢ $14 $15 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $12 +$2 +13%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $11 +$1 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $9 +$3 +29%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $16 −$7 -45%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$5 -21%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $24 −$9 -36%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $19 +$5 +26%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $16 +$2 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33 −$17 -51%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $25 +$9 +36%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $41 −$16 -40%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $64 +$5 +8%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $31 +$5 +14%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $22 +$8 +34%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 13 $21 +$3 +14%
Will Olympic Dcheira win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $17 +$7 +42%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $37 −$36 -99%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $32 +$5 +14%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $27 +$6 +21%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $22 +$5 +22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 +$3 +16%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $16 +$3 +19%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 11 $16 $0 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $74 −$22 -29%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $33 +$3 +8%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $63 −$29 -47%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $53 +$10 +18%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $95 −$5 -5%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $61 −$3 -5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $131 −$15 -11%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $51 −$23 -46%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $42 −$6 -14%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $45 −$3 -6%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $37 +$8 +22%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $25 +$13 +54%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $45 −$8 -17%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $21 −$2 -8%
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 10 $56 −$12 -21%
Cattolica: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 10 $22 +$4 +18%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $37 +$2 +6%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -99%
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Akira Santillan Jun 09 $20 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $14 1h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 86¢ $14 1h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 75¢ $12 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 99¢ $12 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 87¢ $11 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $4 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $11 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 77¢ $9 3d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Katarzyna Kawa 45¢ $9 3d
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 80¢ $16 3d
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 3d
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 3d
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 3d
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 3d
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $16 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 87¢ $16 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 80¢ $15 3d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel SELL Alexander Shevchenko 54¢ $15 3d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 83¢ $24 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 79¢ $19 3d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Indiana Fever 99¢ $19 3d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 86¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.17 · official $14.81 (match) · 1189 history records