Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E1 0xe10e…84ba other 394 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$289 (-1%) realized −$294 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate85%332W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$21
14 days−$30
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$22
weather 17% −$135
sports 14% −$2
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% −$168
crypto 1% −$13
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 126 -1.1% -10.5% 76% 27% -9.9%
≤90d 260 -2.4% -11.7% 85% 13% -11.3%
all 391 -3.6% -12.8% 85% 13% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 13% -10.8%
10% -21.1% 11% -19.3%
15% -28.7% 9% -27.1%
20% -35.7% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$481
Realized−$294
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses332 / 59
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)391 / 394
History coverage150d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots Yes 98¢ 100¢ $332 $338 +$5 (+2%)
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists Yes 100¢ 99¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
João Neves: 1+ goals Yes 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mousa Ta'mari: 3+ shots Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots Jun 17 $208 +$2 +1%
Ali Olwan: 2+ shots Jun 17 $66 +$1 +1%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots Jun 16 $256 $0 +0%
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots Jun 16 $114 $0 +0%
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Michael Olise: 1+ shots Jun 16 $29 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Fabián Ruiz: 2+ shots Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Fabián Ruiz: 5+ shots Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ shots Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
Rodri: 1+ shots Jun 15 $113 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 3+ shots Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots Jun 15 $103 $0 +0%
Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ shots Jun 14 $183 +$1 +0%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 2+ shots Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ shots Jun 14 $48 $0 +1%
Leroy Sané: 1+ shots Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Jamal Musiala: 2+ shots Jun 14 $77 +$2 +2%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $64 +$1 +2%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ shots Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 2+ shots Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ shots Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 3+ shots Jun 14 $114 $0 +0%
İsmail Yüksek: 1+ shots Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
İsmail Yüksek: 2+ shots Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $463 $0 +0%
Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots Jun 13 $60 +$1 +1%
Edmilson Junior: 2+ shots Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots Jun 13 $91 $0 +0%
Breel Embolo: 1+ shots Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Breel Embolo: 2+ shots Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots Jun 13 $55 +$1 +1%
Mauricio Magalhães: 2+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Mauricio Magalhães: 1+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Tim Weah: 1+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Gio Reyna: 5+ shots Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Malik Tillman: 1+ shots Jun 13 $77 $0 +0%
Julio César Enciso: 5+ shots Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Julio César Enciso: 1+ shots Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots BUY Yes 94¢ $31 1h
Pedro Neto: 1+ assists BUY Yes 100¢ $79 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $202 1h
João Neves: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $65 1h
Ali Olwan: 2+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $66 13h
Mousa Ta'mari: 3+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $198 13h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $208 13h
Michael Olise: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $29 22h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $143 22h
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $55 22h
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $114 23h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 93¢ $15 23h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $114 23h
Jovane Cabral: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $16 2d
Rodri: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $113 2d
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $114 2d
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $114 2d
Fabián Ruiz: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Fabián Ruiz: 5+ shots BUY Yes 95¢ $7 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $5 2d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $114 2d
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $103 2d
Nathaniel Brown: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $57 2d
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 3+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $114 2d
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $114 2d
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $114 2d
Jamal Musiala: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $92 3d
Nico Schlotterbeck: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $481.00 · official $481.00 (match) · 1111 history records