Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E1 0xe101…c359 world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 40L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$4
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$16
sports 34% −$5
other 14% $0
politics 11% +$1
finance 2% +$6
culture 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 57% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 28 +3.7% -6.2% 50% 7% -8.9%
≤90d 36 +0.4% -9.1% 47% 8% -9.2%
all 63 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 40
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage331d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $117 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $4 $0 -12%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $232 +$4 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $303 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $114 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $91 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $122 +$3 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $111 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $111 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $125 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $110 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $94 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $177 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $113 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $111 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $59 +$6 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $115 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $115 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $166 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $111 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $5 +$5 +95%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $107 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $367 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $47 −$3 -6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $670 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,123 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $115 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $738 −$5 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $670 +$2 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $11 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $106 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $92 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 25h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 35h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $125 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $121 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $78 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $63 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $48 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $27 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 274 history records