Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E1 0xe100…4d41 sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$229,816 (+26%) realized +$229,253 · open +$563
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%48W / 50L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$8,832per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$8,823est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,320
7 days+$1,461
14 days+$1,461
30 days+$23,254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$160,306
crypto 1% +$1,056
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +29.0% +16.7% 100% 67% +16.8%
≤30d 41 +17.2% +6.0% 49% 46% +0.1%
≤90d 86 +13.0% +2.2% 50% 49% +16.4%
all 98 +12.1% +1.4% 49% 47% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 47% +9.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 42% -0.7%
15% -17.1% 41% -10.3%
20% -25.3% 36% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$9,007) neutral
Persistence
early +15% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
23.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,299 vs −$3,791 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$2,450
Realized+$229,253
Unrealized+$563
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses48 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$8,823
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage174d
Avg bet$8,832
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ 100¢ $1,888 $2,450 +$563 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $1,674 +$1,087 +65%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $1,977 +$233 +12%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1,375 +$141 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $19,032 −$18,911 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $3,843 −$3,804 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $195 −$195 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $1,198 +$3,139 +262%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 31 $6,516 −$6,431 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner May 31 $578 −$569 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $12,082 −$12,004 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $8,573 −$8,499 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $20,320 −$1,709 -8%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $23,227 +$25,340 +109%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $6,686 +$8,952 +134%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 24 $10,391 +$9,678 +93%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $38,788 −$4,491 -12%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 24 $8,396 −$6,785 -81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $1,707 −$1,668 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $12,843 −$21 -0%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 24 $18,714 −$2,471 -13%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 23 $5,149 +$17,735 +344%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 23 $8,583 +$20,426 +238%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $2,359 +$2,405 +102%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner May 23 $7,403 −$1,725 -23%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $4,182 −$2,210 -53%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $5,698 +$122 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 4 Winner May 23 $9,652 −$9,100 -94%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 23 $1,497 +$234 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 23 $5,746 +$13,442 +234%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $29,500 −$2,022 -7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 22 $10,773 −$10,649 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $3,364 +$881 +26%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner May 22 $44 +$35 +80%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner May 22 $2,102 +$1,132 +54%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $6,519 −$6,442 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 21 $6,062 −$6,062 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 21 $6,609 −$5,263 -80%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 21 $26,800 +$13,159 +49%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 21 $3,845 +$10,201 +265%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 21 $5,216 +$5,840 +112%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 21 $46 +$104 +223%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $15,188 +$32,156 +212%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 12 $868 −$858 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 12 $2,100 −$161 -8%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $506 −$506 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 12 $35,625 +$10,592 +30%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner May 12 $787 −$787 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B May 12 $3,007 −$3,007 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 12 $2,818 −$2,818 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner May 12 $1,816 −$1,816 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $6 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $13 22m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $1,881 23m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $2,762 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $4 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $6 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $1 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $8 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $8 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $357 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ $32 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $20 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $367 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $150 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $6 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $15 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $137 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 59¢ $197 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $287 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $82 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $2,088 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 11¢ $122 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $519 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $68 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $68 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $17 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $92 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $87 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $311 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $207 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,450.20 · official $2,450.20 (match) · 2640 history records