Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E0 0xe0fa…711c other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$6
other 16% −$3
sports 6% +$5
finance 5% −$2
crypto 3% +$1
politics 3% −$5
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 0% -11.3%
all 51 -5.4% -14.4% 39% 8% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 8% -11.3%
10% -22.6% 6% -19.8%
15% -30.0% 2% -27.6%
20% -36.9% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage489d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $33 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $67 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $34 −$2 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $40 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $46 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 30 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in May? May 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2025 French Open? May 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 23 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 20 $2 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 20 $6 $0 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 18 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 28 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 16 $7 $0 -1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? Apr 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Mar 20 $8 $0 +4%
Austin Peay vs. West Georgia Feb 26 $8 $0 +0%
Mercer vs. East Tennessee State Feb 25 $8 $0 +0%
James Madison vs. UL Monroe Feb 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on February 26? Feb 25 $9 −$1 -8%
North Alabama vs. Central Arkansas Feb 24 $6 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $11 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $13 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $33 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $14 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $22 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $20 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $12 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $37 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $40 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 62¢ $12 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 62¢ $2 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.94 · official $32.94 (match) · 152 history records